We’re still over two months away from the beginning of the 2009 College Football betting season, but one thing is already crystal clear. Once again, the SEC will be king. When the preseason polls are released, you should find four SEC teams ranked in the Top Ten with defending National Champion Florida a lock to occupy the top spot. The Gators not only return QB Tim Tebow, but all 11 defensive starters from last year and the entire second unit as well! They, without question, are the prohibitive favorite win the BCS Trophy.

However, the SEC West will give the Gators a run for their money. Note that Florida has lost to at least one team from this division every year since 1999. Two of this year’s contenders are familiar names in LSU and Alabama. However, the third may surprise you. Houston Nutt stepped into what many felt was a great situation last year when he arrived in Oxford, Mississippi and his Rebels did not disappoint with a 9-4 campaign that culminated in a 47-34 whipping of Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. Ole Miss was the only team that beat Florida last year.

Many are projecting the Rebels to win the SEC West this year and take on Florida in the Conference Championship Game. Is this a case of “too much hype” or are the Rebels for real?

2008 Recap

Ole Miss finished 9-4 last season, but it could have been even better. All four of their losses came by seven points or less, by a combined margin of 19 points. They lost at Wake Forest on a last second field goal and at Alabama by just four in a game they trailed 24-3. As mentioned above, they were the only team to beat Florida and dominated LSU on the road, outgaining the Tigers 409-215.

Schedule

The 2009 schedule sets up very favorably for the Rebels. Their two toughest opponents (LSU and Alabama) must come to Oxford and there are only four true road games on the slate. It is not inconceivable that Mississippi could enter the SEC Title Game with an unbeaten record as they avoid Florida during the regular season. The non-conference schedule is weak with Memphis, SE Louisiana, UAB and FCS Northern Arizona on tap. One problem spot could be at Auburn (10/31), who has beaten Ole Miss 22 of 26 times, but not last year.

Offense

Texas transfer Jevan Snead returns under center looking to build on a strong second half of 2008. Snead had a 2:1 TD to INT ratio last season and completed over 65% of his passes over the final three games. He is one of eight returning starters on this side of the ball. This unit scored 31 or more points in each of its final four games, outscoring opponents 182-47 over that same span. In conference play, they outgained opponents by 80.

9 yards/game, which ranked third in the league.

Defense

Like the offensive side of the ball, eight starters return on the Rebel defense. Last year, HC Nutt inherited a group with 11 of its top 12 tacklers back from the year previous and it really showed down the stretch as they held Auburn to just seven points (fewest points scored vs. Ole Miss since ’65) and in the LSU game, they held the Tigers to four plays or less on 8 of 13 drives.

Verdict

Ole Miss looked awesome down the stretch last year and there is plenty of reason to believe they could run the table in the regular season. However, a three week stretch that includes road dates at South Carolina and Vandy, then the big showdown with Alabama could prove troubling. The Oct 10 date with Bama will likely decide the SEC West since both squads draw LSU at home. We’ll call for the Rebels to win the SEC West, go to a BCS Bowl and finish in the Top Ten for the 1st time since 1969.

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